If you thought that COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine were everything you were wrong: China could invade Taiwan with heavy consequences for America but also for the whole world.
The war in Ukraine has created a precedent that China is studying very closely and strategically. There have been ambiguous relations between China and Taiwan for some time, but in this period the possibility of a confrontation is becoming more and more serious.
The United States represents the strongest military power in the world and, logically, China cannot fail to take this into account. However, the Chinese government has ascertained that if it invaded Taiwan, it is likely that the US would behave exactly as it is doing with Ukraine, that is, with support on every front but without directly intervening militarily.
This, in the eyes of China, averted the danger of a third World War and, presumably, the risk of a nuclear war. As a result, they could win the fight in no time.
The situation is worrying, especially since it is announced jointly by the American security services (the FBI) and those of the United Kingdom (MI5). As the BBC points out, for the heads of the security services of these two nations, the latent threat for years has become ” an unprecedented danger ” . This is because China has already taken steps to prepare for the invasion of Taiwan.
It is as if the war initiated by Russia had “made school” and taught China a better way to proceed. In fact, solutions have already been studied to isolate their economy against possible sanctions, to protect themselves in the event that the anger of the international community should be unleashed, manoeuvres that for the FBI and MI5 are unequivocal signals of a will to clash.
If China were to invade Taiwan, there will be incalculable repercussions on any company, on consumers all over the world and of course also on Apple and the entire American economy. In fact, in Taiwan reside the factories of TSMC that deal with producing components for all portable devices and computers.
Why is TSMC so important?
Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), is independent of mainland China, formally the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since 1949.
The PRC operates under the “One China Policy” and sees Taiwan as part of its territory. The RCO also wants reunification but not under the communist regime.
The United States has blacklisted a number of Chinese tech companies in an effort to thwart the country’s ambitions. In recent years, this blacklist of high-performance computer manufacturers, chip makers and server manufacturers has gotten bigger and bigger and that means US companies can’t do business with any of these companies.
China is trying to increase its domestic chip production in the face of sanctions and consequently, the importance of TSMC is enormous and would represent the real reason why China might want to invade Taiwan.
Precisely for this reason, there are two possible scenarios: the first concerns China which could severely weaken the American economy by attacking and destroying TSMC factories. The only way to resume the production of devices, by Apple and other companies, would be to rely on factories in China (currently on the blacklist). This would bring greater wealth to mainland China (PRC) and, at the same time, the ROC could be so weakened as to “disappear” and be incorporated into Chinese territory again.
The second scenario is that of resistance, but with very important sacrifices: to avoid a confrontation with China, Taiwan could destroy TSMC’s factories itself, in such a way as to make the territory much less attractive and wreck China’s technological ambitions. , which may no longer have reasons to start the fight.
In both cases, something bad and with a strong impact on the world level would happen. The only sure thing is that from 2020 to the foreseeable future, the history books will fill with pages.